Just to qualify the title, the desktop is dead if you’re under 20 years old.
Screens are migrating from living room to desktop to tablet to mobile. Depending on which generation you belong to, one of those screens is your home screen.
I made a heretical statement 2 years ago in this post – “Facebook is going to be irrelevant in 10 years”, which was true, but the unspoken part which was omitted was “Facebook ON THE DESKTOP is going to be irrelevant”. FB positions itself as a mobile company – they are doing their best to remain relevant in a post PC world. They bought Beluga – one of the companies I predicted to overtake them. Instagram was another good choice- so smart acquisitions by FB. (Although you could argue that FB will be irrelevant irrespective of anything it tries to do to change it’s fate- but that’s a separate post).
Another stat that I tweeted last fall was that Qualcomm’s market cap had passed Intel’s – another sign that the desktop was dead/dying. The two firms are at parity right now – but over the next few years term, mobile wins…
The key take away here is that we’re in the middle of a major transition (no real surprise) but most people out are still thinking web – in design terms, product terms and functionality terms. There are more third wave of mobile companies being launched, and they will be the ones to succeed. They aren’t written for the web, and aren’t written by or for generation web.
I realize some of this is stating the obvious- but if you’re reading this on your desktop/laptop “go directly to jail; do not pass go, do not collect $200“